The fiscal rules compliance report analyzes the medium-term fiscal path implied by the Austrian federal government’s annual stability program update and provides information on Austria’s compliance with EU and national fiscal rules. This report is released annually in mid-June. By monitoring Austria’s compliance with fiscal rules, the Fiscal Advisory Council performs its function of a fiscal watchdog – a responsibility that has been assigned to independent bodies across Europe. The report also refers to current reforms and interpretations of the EU’s fiscal framework, highlighting critical aspects in both EU and national fiscal frameworks. The report’s budget analyses are based on the Fiscal Advisory Councils own fiscal forecasts for years t and t+1 (from spring 2021, for years t to t+4). Fiscal policy recommendations addressed to the Federal Minister of Finance are an integral part of the report.
Fiscal rules compliance report 2023 to 2028 (of June 2024)
- Significant increase in the budget deficit to 3.4% of GDP in 2024 and persistently high budget deficits in the following years
- Continuous increase in the government debt ratio from 2024 despite high nominal GDP growth
- Despite a delayed economic recovery, the robust labor market and high negotiated wages are supporting budgetary developments in 2024
- Crisis management measures continue to have strong budgetary impact in 2024
- Fiscal Advisory Council forecast much more pessimistic than forecast by the Ministry of Finance
- Austria will fail to comply with both Maastricht criteria from 2024 onward
Year of publication: 2024
Fiscal rules compliance report 2022 to 2027 (of June 2023)
- Given the improved medium-term economic outlook, Austria is likely to achieve its medium-term objective (MTO) by 2027
- Robust labor market developments and high inflation will support Austria’s fiscal performance in 2023 despite currently weak economic activity
- Crisis management measures continue to have strong budgetary impact in 2023
- Forecast for Austria’s fiscal balance more optimistic than stability program
- Austria’s debt-to-GDP ratio to drop below 70% in 2026 for the first time since the 2008/09 financial crisis
- Austria will comply with both Maastricht criteria from 2023 onward
Year of publication: 2023
Fiscal rules compliance report 2021 to 2026 (of June 2022)
- Present fiscal forecast was drawn up in an environment marked by enormous uncertainties regarding the macroeconomic and fiscal implications of the war in Ukraine as well as the future course of the COVID-19 pandemic
- Economic recovery and economic policy measures determine the fiscal path following large pandemic-related deficits in 2020 and 2021
- Above-average growth of general government revenues in the medium term, normalization of expenditure path from 2023
- Fiscal path for 2022 to 2025 plausible, although current stability program is altogether more pessimistic than our spring forecast
- Public debt ratio expected to continuously fall to below the 2019 pre-crisis level by 2026
- Fiscal Advisory Council spring forecast expects Austria to meet both Maastricht criteria from 2022
Year of publication: 2022
Austria´s Compliance with EU Fiscal Rules (PDF, 0.2 MB)
Fiscal rules compliance report 2020 to 2025 (of June 2021)
- New medium-term fiscal forecast expects sustained high budget deficit in 2021 and gradual deficit reduction until 2025
- Discretionary policies to counter pandemic effects continue to determine gov-ernment revenues and expenditure well into 2022
- Fiscal Advisory Council forecast clearly more optimistic about 2021–2024 fiscal path than current stability program
- Continued reduction of government debt ratio after historical high in 2021
- No sanctions for clear failure to meet Maastricht criteria 2020 to 2022
Year of publication: 2021
Austria´s Compliance with EU Fiscal Rules (PDF, 0.2 MB)
Fiscal rules compliance report 2019 to 2021 (of May 2020)
- Substantial spending increases and revenue losses due to COVID-19 support package and massive economic setback
- Deficits substantially higher than expected by the Ministry of Finance under the latest stability programme update
- Austria failing to comply with several EU fiscal rules in 2019–2021 period due to COVID-19 pandemic
- Activation of the general escape clause allows deviation from structural budgetary objectives of the SGP
- Under national fiscal rules: no sanctions for 2019, general escape clause activated for 2020 and 2021
Year of publication: 2020
Austria´s Compliance with EU Fiscal Rules (PDF, 0.3 MB)
Fiscal rules compliance report 2018 to 2023 (of May 2019)
- Continued robust GDP growth supports fiscal consolidation
- Fiscal Advisory Council sees Austria in broad compliance with EU fiscal rules
- Stability programme update 2019 sees Austria in broad compliance with EU fiscal rules
- Some regional and municipal governments may fail to comply with national fiscal rules (structural balance rules, debt rule) from 2019 onward
Year of publication: 2019
Austria´s Compliance with EU Fiscal Rules (PDF, 0.3 MB)
Fiscal rules compliance report 2017 to 2022 (of May 2018)
- Good economic conditions help fiscal consolidation – Austria expected to be in compliance with EU fiscal rules in 2018 and 2019
- Different levels of government need adequate division of responsibilities and financing structures to ensure a sustainable fiscal course
- Adaptations of the national fiscal framework (2012 Austrian Stability Pact) are called for
- Noncompliance with national fiscal rules expected for 2016 and 2017
Year of publication: 2018
Austria's Compliance with EU Fiscal Rules (PDF, 0.4 MB)
Fiscal rules compliance report 2016 to 2021 (of May 2017)
Fiscal rules compliance report 2015 to 2020 (of May 2016)
- Maastricht deficit will widen in 2016 and 2017 compared to 2015 but will remain well below the limit of 3% of GDP
- Risk of a significant deviation from the EU's structural budget rule in the forecasting period
- Spending rule complied with in 2016, significant breach of spending limits in 2017
- Debt rule complied with in 2016 and 2017
Year of publication: 2016
Fiscal rules compliance report 2014 to 2019 (of May 2015)
- Deficit clearly below Maastricht benchmark (3% of GDP) – reduction of the deficit may be delayed by 2016 tax reform
- Noncompliance with the structural budget rule over the forecasting horizon – significant deviations as defined by the EU in 2016
- Additional spending significantly exceeds upper threshold in 2015
- Noncompliance with debt rule because of insufficient minimum structural adjustment in 2016
- Evaluation of budget developments difficult as explanations and quantifications are missing
Year of publication: 2015
Fiscal rules compliance report 2013 to 2018 (of May 2014)
- Abrogation of Austria’s excessive deficit procedure expected for mid-2014
- Austria does not comply with all EU fiscal rules as of 2014
- Government program fails to specify major structural reform plans
- Discretionary measures characterize fiscal consolidation path
- Lack of explanations and quantifications makes budget path difficult to assess
Year of publication: 2014
